An Econ dude speaks

Via Peak Oil blog, a Ludwig von Mises Institute opinion piece.

The author needs to consider economics as well as statistics and science. He takes a condescending potshot at Goodstein:

However, this does not make up for his lack of economic understanding.

This criticism, after the author misexplains the application of normal distributions. He actually believes in the multiple peak theory of future supplies. Little does he realize that the amplitude of individual oil finds follow a decaying path as well. As these many, many subsequently smaller finds get convolved into the demand impulse, we will see a curve with the same distinctive decaying shape.

Furthermore, if someone, does not understand statistics, they will not understand the science. Ask Goodstein how many students¹ he has flunked out of his statistical mechanics courses for not possessing the requisite math skills.

¹They ended up transferring to Ferris State to get a degree in hotel management